AHC: Apartheid South Africa survives into the 21st Century
- Thread starter ElectedToRead
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I am also on thin ice, but that won't matter. Israel is similar, their hardliners tend to be conservative and a useful tool to be able to avoid reform, look we don't like it,but we have to appease them" No reason it won't be the same.
@Declan he made a good argument, they can keep those policies but pretend as a propaganda that they are the bastion of freedom and progressivism, what do you think?
The conflicts are not so comparable, starting with the differences in ethnic/racial demographics. Not only is oppressing a majority much harder than oppressing a population of similar size, but over time "your own" businessmen start thinking they'd make more money if "the other side" had more wealth and could by what they sell. Then the tactics of the ANC and PAC were less violent in general, and less terroristic to civilians in particular, than the PLO and later groups - notwithstanding particular incidents.
Internal support among the white community, most especially the white youth, was starting to slowly drop.
International opinion and pressure was much less supportive of the apartheid government.
The balance of forces by the mid 80s was against apartheid.
There are several reasons why I think the analogy breaks down entirely here. But to explain so would probably start venturing into the realm of Modern Politics.
What I will comment on is the South African side of things. To begin with, South African white liberals never argued for maintaining the system of Apartheid in a new coat of paint. One idea that gained some traction is the concept confederalizing South Africa. In such a scenario, there won't be any need to put lipstick on a pig since there would be no overarching white rule over South Africa, certainly compared to before.
But that was only one idea within the liberal camp, and increasingly towards the 1990, an idea that started to fall off as many white liberals saw that already existing turmoil being too much to implement it. Thus the mainstream white liberal position was almost exclusively in favour of something closer to modern day South Africa than Apartheid or confederalism.
Have Zimbabwe's collapse happen during the 80's causing large scale white flight to South Africa and scaring the South African and Foreign governments into thinking that majority rule could result in the same happening in South Africa.
If Apartheid can a few more years past the point where the USSR is well and truly gone then from a military and security point of view this gives Pretoria a bit of breathing room as the various anti Apartheid movements that might pose the threat of an uprising will have just lost their key backer.
Furthermore Pretoria will now have a way of circumnavigating Western arms embargoes as you now have a Russia with masses of modern weaponry now surplus to requirements combined with a crippling money shortage and not many scruples about where the weaponry is going or where the cash is coming from.
If they can hold on long enough then Pretoria may also benefit from the economic rise of China which has a growing demand for minerals found in South Africa and likely not too many concerns about Human rights which gives South Africa a significant trading partner and helps prop up the economy.
That said while you might be able to make Apartheid last a few years longer which may be just enough to get it over the line into the 21st century I can't see it being sustainable for much longer and any measures to preserve it would just be putting off the inevitable and potentially making for a much more chaotic end.
If Apartheid can a few more years past the point where the USSR is well and truly gone then from a military and security point of view this gives Pretoria a bit of breathing room as the various anti Apartheid movements that might pose the threat of an uprising will have just lost their key backer.
Furthermore Pretoria will now have a way of circumnavigating Western arms embargoes as you now have a Russia with masses of modern weaponry now surplus to requirements combined with a crippling money shortage and not many scruples about where the weaponry is going or where the cash is coming from.
If they can hold on long enough then Pretoria may also benefit from the economic rise of China which has a growing demand for minerals found in South Africa and likely not too many concerns about Human rights which gives South Africa a significant trading partner and helps prop up the economy.
That said while you might be able to make Apartheid last a few years longer which may be just enough to get it over the line into the 21st century I can't see it being sustainable for much longer and any measures to preserve it would just be putting off the inevitable and potentially making for a much more chaotic end.
I mean the alternative is just some of form of Utopian or progressive ideology taking over the state, nation, or world with most being of some form of leftist flavor. And those are not exactly conductive towards conflict and drama especially since you kinda run into a lack of any meaningful conflict that does not start to push into modern day politics or that makes whichever side one supports look bad.
Tweak internal politics some and sure, it oculd easily survive. It just needs to make it through the unipolar moment of 1991-2007 then it becomes less shaky.