Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

[Sqdn19]

I would be satisfied with that and pretty much little need for the Allies to do much else!

The allies having far greater sea lift capacity would be more able to supply locations in the North of the country.

Norway in such a scenario would be for the German Army a self sustaining POW camp and I would suspect that even more troops and aircraft over OTL (about 1/3rd Million troops) would be sent there fearing such an allied push.

Finland would switch sides very quickly, freeing up a lot of Soviet personnel.
And Hitler & the Ruhr would go ape over the loss of iron ore during the winter.

Provided they could take Narvik & area fast enough. How many LCTs can be crammed full of Victors?

I don’t mean to be snarky, but I don’t understand how it’s easier for the Brits and harder for the Germans to reinforce Italy or Greece than Northern Norway.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I don’t mean to be snarky, but I don’t understand how it’s easier for the Brits and harder for the Germans to reinforce Italy or Greece than Northern Norway.

Not sure I follow?

What's Greece and Italy got to do with this?

 

[Mark1878]

Not sure I follow?

What's Greece and Italy got to do with this?

This is assuming that it is a choice between Norway or the Med for a British attack.

 

[kelgar04]

I thought ITTL the Italians were trying to keep out of the Eastern Front?

 

[Draconis]

"General Alan Brooke had prepared a statement to be made at an interview with the Soviet Minister of Foreign Affairs Vyacheslav Mikhaylovich Molotov who was on his way through back from the USA to Moscow. The demand for a second front from Moscow were getting deafening. Brooke had finally managed to convince Churchill that Allied forces should not land in France in strength except to stay there, not just to raid the coast. Secondly, unless German morale is deteriorating, then an invasion of France is considered impossible." - post #9683

Does this indicate that in TTL the Dieppe raid debacle won't occur?

 

[McAuslan_in_the_Rough]

10 June 1942. London, England.

General Alan Brooke had prepared a statement to be made at an interview with the Soviet Minister of Foreign Affairs Vyacheslav Mikhaylovich Molotov who was on his way through back from the USA to Moscow.

Still People's Commissar of Foreign Affairs at that point, but I appreciate it's a technical distinction only and anyone in Britain would think of him as a Minister.

 

[Seawolf]

Frankly, this all depends on how Franco reacts if they launch an Iberian adventure.

Yes, Franco has diplomatic relations with the Allies - but would he really trust the Allies when he sees the forces they're unloading in Portugal that they mean Spain no harm?

And who the fuck knows how Hitler will react.

 

[Sqdn19]

Not sure I follow?

What's Greece and Italy got to do with this?

I presumed the 2nd front would be one of the three, as France is almost certainly a “beachhead too far”, no matter how eager the Americans might be for Sledgehammer.

 

[MattII]

I presumed the 2nd front would be one of the three, as France is almost certainly a “beachhead too far”, no matter how eager the Americans might be for Sledgehammer.

Sicily and Greece are also bridgeheads too far without support. Sicily requires French North Africa, while Greece requires a lot of infrastructure work on Crete, and maybe some island-hopping in the Aegean. For Crete, possible a proto-Mulberry Harbour could be put together? there's virtually no tides in the Mediterranean after all to screw things up.

 

[JWilly48519]

With regard to Stalin asking the western Allies to do something to decrease pressure on the USSR: if the Allies gained control of Narvik, 90% of Swedish iron ore would be inaccessible to Germany during average-cold winters between the first freeze of the Gulf of Bothnia and the spring thaw...on average, a period of four or more months. Germany had other sources of ore, but their best quality ore all came from the more northern Swedish mines, and that was the ore used for gun, armor and machine tool steel. The impact on the Germany military economy of cutting out 1/3 of the year's production of high grade steel would be massive. Nothing else that the western Allies could do would have nearly that much impact on the eastern front fighting.

 

[MattII]

With regard to Stalin asking the western Allies to do something to decrease pressure on the USSR: if the Allies gained control of Narvik, 90% of Swedish iron ore would be inaccessible to Germany during average-cold winters between the first freeze of the Gulf of Bothnia and the spring thaw...on average, a period of four or more months. Germany had other sources of ore, but their best quality ore all came from the more northern Swedish mines, and that was the ore used for gun, armor and machine tool steel. The impact on the Germany military economy of cutting out 1/3 of the year's production of high grade steel would be massive. Nothing else that the western Allies could do would have nearly that much impact on the eastern front fighting.

The British gave Narvik up when the rest of Norway fell, because it was indefensible in the long-term.

I do wonder, who owns what Aegean islands? If the British make a grab for any that are axis-owned, it could force the Germans to tie down troops defending them.

 

[NoThymeToulouse]

Could the British attempt to in some way put Narvik out of action via a limited incursion in force or bombing instead?

 

[MattII]

Narvik was on no interest to the Germans once they took it, so wrecking it would do precisely nothing.

 

[HPM]

Narvik was on no interest to the Germans once they took it, so wrecking it would do precisely nothing.

OK, I had assumed that the Iron ore still came through there, but presumably it came south through Sweden once Norway was occupied?

 

[pjmidd]

OK, I had assumed that the Iron ore still came through there, but presumably it came south through Sweden once Norway was occupied?

Only part of the year, Swedish ore in winter is blocked by the ice on the Baltic. The main change is that with France and Belgium in German hands they have more sources of iron.

 

[MattII]

Only part of the year, Swedish ore in winter is blocked by the ice on the Baltic. The main change is that with France and Belgium in German hands they have more sources of iron.

Huh, okay. So hitting Narvik might do some good after all? Of course, I doubt they could do enough damage to put the port out of action for long, and the losses at this stage would probably quickly become extortionate.

 

[Sqdn19]

OK, I had assumed that the Iron ore still came through there, but presumably it came south through Sweden once Norway was occupied?

AFAIK there wasn’t a railway south from the Kiruna mines. Even today the only termini on the Malmbanan are Narvik & Luleå.

The British gave Narvik up when the rest of Norway fell, because it was indefensible in the long-term.

I understood it was because the defence of Britain took priority in late summer 1940 and everything was repatriated in anticipation of Sealion.

 

[Patg_hnj]

AFAIK there wasn’t a railway south from the Kiruna mines. Even today the only termini on the Malmbanan are Narvik & Luleå.

I understood it was because the defence of Britain took priority in late summer 1940 and everything was repatriated in anticipation of Sealion.

There are two lines south from Kiruna apart from the ore line to Luleå one of which was and is unsuitable for heavy ore trains - the Inland Line.
The the other is the Northern Main line which heads south at Luleå and could handle the weight of the trains at the time (but not now) but the issue would be capacity being single track and the electric ore locos were slow compared with the other locos in use at the time (60kmh compared with 75kmh for the freight version of the standard D class and up to 100kmh for for the passenger version)
I cannot remember if the line had been electrified in 1940. I do know that by 1942 it was possible to travel on an electric train from the far north of Sweden to the southern ports.

 

[Finbarr the Fair]

There are two lines south from Kiruna apart from the ore line to Luleå one of which was and is unsuitable for heavy ore trains - the Inland Line.
The the other is the Northern Main line which heads south at Luleå and could handle the weight of the trains at the time (but not now) but the issue would be capacity being single track and the electric ore locos were slow compared with the other locos in use at the time (60kmh compared with 75kmh for the freight version of the standard D class and up to 100kmh for for the passenger version)
I cannot remember if the line had been electrified in 1940. I do know that by 1942 it was possible to travel on an electric train from the far north of Sweden to the southern ports.

And of course in winter getting the ore from a southern Swedish port to Germany would be difficult or impossible.

Was the Baltic Sea frozen throughout the possible sailing routes?

 

[matlef]

And of course in winter getting the ore from a southern Swedish port to Germany would be difficult or impossible.

Was the Baltic Sea frozen throughout the possible sailing routes?

I believe it was transported by rail to Oxelösund and from there shipped to Germany during the winter months.

But holding Narvik does allow the Allies to deny Swedish iron ore to Germany. They could just outbid Germany, if they can provide the resources which Sweden needs (i believe coal and oil products were a big issue.).

The Allies could also pressure Sweden to cancel the transit agreement that allowed Germany to ship troops and goods on Swedish railways. So the German forces in Norway would be depending on shipping from the continent. While the forces in Finland would require supply over the Baltic Sea.