WI Valentinian I Lives Longer

[John Fredrick Parker]

[If] Valens defeats the Goths at the battle of Adrianople in ad 378, [that] means Theodosius never becomes emperor, illyricum remains under control of the western empire and the Goths are eliminated as a threat towards the empire meaning the sack of Rome never happens and neither does the battle of frigidus leaving both empires stable with a abundant amount of Legions to counter the barbarians that cross the Rhine in 406…

Agreed, and posting here because it pretty much applies to this PoD as well.

and then the Huns though they might receive heavy damage from the Huns they'll recover and continue to keep the barbarians out of Gaul and Italy

The Huns will be a challenge, though it may help if the West and East are actually working together, and the latter doesn’t suck them on the former.

though they might still cut Britannia adrift as in OTL.

Not as sure about this.

 

[Andristan]

If the Rhine invasion in 406/407 is stopped or not seen as much as a crisis, then that butterflys away the rebellions of Marcus, Gratian and Constantine III, which was the direct result of the Rhine crossings, so Britain is not abandoned, Honorius' cousins live, Stilicho might even survive longer, if he can hold the Rhine frontier.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

You know, I noticed that we have discussed overall religious policy TTL, but not as much the potential for an alternate evolution of Nicene Christianity itself; and considering how important the early 5th Century was for the theology and history of Christianity, that may also be something worth considering here.

If the Rhine invasion in 406/407 is stopped or not seen as much as a crisis, then that butterflys away the rebellions of Marcus, Gratian and Constantine III, which was the direct result of the Rhine crossings, so Britain is not abandoned

Agreed; and what’s interesting here is that we’re not just likely averting the Anglo-Saxon Conquest, but also the interim period of Romano-Britain (407 to circa 440’s) that had plenty of interesting things happen if their own right.

Stilicho might even survive longer, if he can hold the Rhine frontier.

I mean, he is born and possibly serving in the army by the PoD; nonetheless, I think we’d start by seeing how his patron, Theodosius, is doing TTL. To start, Count Theodosius likely isn’t executed, so Theo doesn’t temporarily retire; and no disaster at Adrianople means he likely keeps his Moesian command on the Danube for longer. My guess, longer term, the careers of both Theodosius and Stilchio remain in the West TTL.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So an interesting detail occurred to me, that Valentinian was among the last Roman Emperors who at least somewhat tolerated gladiatorial and bestiarii games during his reign; the blood sports would be officially outlawed under late in the reign of Theodosius (and again by Honorius, and again by Valentinian III for good measure). Now I bring this up here, not because I think these rituals had a real chance of surviving much longer, but because there may be potential for a completely different context for abolition.

Here’s what I’m thinking -- what if Gratian (say that TTL, he reigns circa 390 to circa 410) decides to officially seek not only the thoughts of the official church leadership, but gathers as many official statements from as many prominent non-Christian leaders and philosophers as he can find, to “weigh in” on whether fights to the death or execution by beast are “pleasing to the Divine”. I think at this point in history he could get quite a few prominent men from across the empire’s theological spectrum to answer this question in the negative, building off a larger trend in the empire’s cultural trajectory (which saw things like animal sacrifices falling out of favor even before the various bans under the Constantinian dynasty).

What do you guys think?

 

[Nuraghe]

So an interesting detail occurred to me, that Valentinian was among the last Roman Emperors who at least somewhat tolerated gladiatorial and bestiarii games during his reign; the blood sports would be officially outlawed under late in the reign of Theodosius (and again by Honorius, and again by Valentinian III for good measure). Now I bring this up here, not because I think these rituals had a real chance of surviving much longer, but because there may be potential for a completely different context for abolition.

Here’s what I’m thinking -- what if Gratian (say that TTL, he reigns circa 390 to circa 410) decides to officially seek not only the thoughts of the official church leadership, but gathers as many official statements from as many prominent non-Christian leaders and philosophers as he can find, to “weigh in” on whether fights to the death or execution by beast are “pleasing to the Divine”. I think at this point in history he could get quite a few prominent men from across the empire’s theological spectrum to answer this question in the negative, building off a larger trend in the empire’s cultural trajectory (which saw things like animal sacrifices falling out of favor even before the various bans under the Constantinian dynasty).

What do you guys think?

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Another notable detail -- TTL is likely averting not only the Sack of Rome in 410 (or any sacks in the 5th Century), but also the Sack of Milan in 402; I bring this up because even though Rome had not actually been the capital of the western part of the empire since the time of Diocletian, it was still the largest city in the empire at the time. So it's worth asking here -- how does Urban Italy develop over the couple of centuries or so TTL? (@AndreaConti , any thoughts?)

very intriguing detail, we can actually see this passage as a final development of Roman thought on the repudiation of human sacrifice ( as a religious rite, just see how they described in a disgusted way the practices of certain Celtic or Germanic populations ) combined with Christian morality, which tolerated violence only if it was right ( so a defensive war, it was bad but it had to be done, making two or more people fight in an arena for the entertainment of the public, it was a barbaric and inhuman action ) so I still see gladiatorial games starting to decline, even if it must be said that Otl in Rome during the pontificate of Gregory the Great hunts still took place very occasionally in the various infrastructures in the empire, as regards being able to avoid the very heavy two sacks of Rome that Otl suffered, it would be a very good thing for the city itself ( because it was not devastated by the Vandals, who were much more violent than the Visigoths ) furthermore Rome will still remain the largest city in the empire in terms of number of inhabitants and their wealth ( given that the senate will still command us, it is now ascertained by historians that the onerous risk requested by Alaric in order not to besiege the city, equal to approximately 40 thousand tons of silver, could easily be paid by a single senatorial family present in the City, and in all of Rome they were approximately more or less 600 senators, with their respective families ) although I believe that in the long run this will partially weaken the strength of the popes, since the only person who saved the city population from being targeted in 455 was the same pontiff who negotiated with Genseric for not to touch the people during the looting, returning to the topic, without a tremendous fifth century it is probable that the urbanization of Italy and the other provinces will more or less timidly begin to increase again, especially if with it the economic and commercial network of the empire ( which Otl combined with the danger of living in cities in the late empire, led people to prefer to take refuge more in the countryside )

 

[Nuraghe]

very intriguing detail, we can actually see this passage as a final development of Roman thought on the repudiation of human sacrifice ( as a religious rite, just see how they described in a disgusted way the practices of certain Celtic or Germanic populations ) combined with Christian morality, which tolerated violence only if it was right ( so a defensive war, it was bad but it had to be done, making two or more people fight in an arena for the entertainment of the public, it was a barbaric and inhuman action ) so I still see gladiatorial games starting to decline, even if it must be said that Otl in Rome during the pontificate of Gregory the Great hunts still took place very occasionally in the various infrastructures in the empire, as regards being able to avoid the very heavy two sacks of Rome that Otl suffered, it would be a very good thing for the city itself ( because it was not devastated by the Vandals, who were much more violent than the Visigoths ) furthermore Rome will still remain the largest city in the empire in terms of number of inhabitants and their wealth ( given that the senate will still command us, it is now ascertained by historians that the onerous risk requested by Alaric in order not to besiege the city, equal to approximately 40 thousand tons of silver, could easily be paid by a single senatorial family present in the City, and in all of Rome they were approximately more or less 600 senators, with their respective families ) although I believe that in the long run this will partially weaken the strength of the popes, since the only person who saved the city population from being targeted in 455 was the same pontiff who negotiated with Genseric for not to touch the people during the looting, returning to the topic, without a tremendous fifth century it is probable that the urbanization of Italy and the other provinces will more or less timidly begin to increase again, especially if with it the economic and commercial network of the empire ( which Otl combined with the danger of living in cities in the late empire, led people to prefer to take refuge more in the countryside )

finally there is another thing that I want to point out without the civil wars and the incursions of the barbarian peoples between the end of the 4th and the beginning of the 5th century it is very probable that Rome found itself not only with more soldiers at its disposal but also with a surplus of citizens to be settled in depopulated areas of the empire, which consequently can further speed up the Latinization of certain border areas ( see northern Gaul and the Rhine, partly also Africa outside of Carthage and coast and finally in the Balkans ( although I think this area will also be subject to heavy Hellenization )


as regards the development of Christianity in the empire itself, I see in the West a new confrontation between the emperor and the papacy against the Donatist movement ( as happens in Otl with the condemnation of it which was reiterated again by the Council of Carthage in 411 ) but which it does not only concern geological issues but also contains and expresses a certain dose of a purely Punic nationalism, given that during the Otl reign of Valentinian we have the revolt of Firmus ( who was a Mauretan leader who had challenged the power of Rome and had assumed the title of emperor between 366 and 372, which according to historians was widely supported by the Donatist faction ) then in the same period we find the work of Optatus of Milevi "De schismate Donatistarum" composed in response to that of the Donatist bishop of Carthage, Parmeniano, finally between 373, where Valentinian I tightened the laws against them and 377 in which Gratian wrote to the vicar of the prefect, Flavian ( himself a Donatist ) ordering him to hand over all the basilicas of the schismatics to the Catholics ( including those built by the same Donatists ) furthermore Gratian himself imposed on Claudian ( Donatist bishop of Rome ) to return immediately to Africa, but when he refused to obey, a Roman synod drove him away a hundred miles from the city, infind it is probable that the bishop Catholic of Carthage, Genetlio to avoid further clashes decided to make a soft application of the laws in the province, furthermore it must be considered that at the time of Augustine the Catholics ( if we want to start calling them that ) had gained many positions compared to the Donatists also because the latter were victims of heavy schisms and internal struggles among themselves, particularly in the regions between Mauretania and Numidia

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Another notable detail -- TTL is likely averting not only the Sack of Rome in 410 (or any sacks in the 5th Century), but also the Sack of Milan in 402; I bring this up because even though Rome had not actually been the capital of the western part of the empire since the time of Diocletian, it was still the largest city in the empire at the time. So it's worth asking here -- how does Urban Italy develop over the couple of centuries or so TTL?

-----

An idea I had a few years back may come about here:

This event, from 403 CE. Specifically, what if John Chrysostom remained Patriarch of Constantinople until a later death (sometime 415-420), while Theophilus is removed from his post as Bishop (or "Pope") of Alexandria, which also prevents his nephew Cyril from succeeding him.

How does this change the history of the church in the early 5th Century? For example, do the disputes floating around this time (what OTL calls Nestorianism, Monosophytism, etc) still lead to a Council? And without Cyril playing an active role, does this alternate Ephesus play out differently? Does the absence of Archbishop Atticus change this period as well?

Thinking back on it now, I wonder if Theophilus or Cyril would have quite the influence on Christianity TTL that they would OTL -- if Nicene Christendom isn't in as much of a panic about Arianism and the Fall of the West, and the imperial authorities were more protective of non-orthodox communities, would they be able to rise to such prominence?

Looking at OTL Cyril's theology, it struck me that he was wading directly into what decades would later become the "Monosphyte Controversy" -- and he seems to be taking a hostile view to what would OTL become the Orthodox position. What if, at the time of Pelagius and Nestorius, the Church was more concerned with taking hard stand against Monosophytism (and possibly Miaphytism), and possibly also wanted to clarify positions on Free Will and Double Predestination while they're at it.

What do you guys think?

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Any thoughts on either of these, @AndreaConti ?

 

[Andristan]

Pretty sure Cyril of Alexandria is firmly on line with both the orthodox and the Orthodox positions seeing as they are the same, and he is quoted by all chalcedonian Christians in support of their position. The council of Ephesus backed Cyril quite thoroughly almost running over his opposition, it seems to have been basically his show.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Pretty sure Cyril of Alexandria is firmly on line with both the orthodox and the Orthodox positions seeing as they are the same, and he is quoted by all chalcedonian Christians in support of their position. The council of Ephesus backed Cyril quite thoroughly almost running over his opposition, it seems to have been basically his show.

It depends on your interpretation on a number of points, I suppose. Eutyches believed (or purported to believe) that he was upholding Cyril's legacy in clamping down on Nestorianism, and it was his position that carried over to the Second Council of Ephesus; however, the Council of Chalcedon put aside said council (again, depending on which church history you believe), and condemned Eutyches and his Monosophyte followers as heretics. Whether Cyril's theology was or wasn't an earlier form of Monosphysim, or whether Eutyches and his followers fundamentally misunderstood him, is a matter of some church historical and theological debate, it would seem.

 

[Nuraghe]

another interesting detail that we will see happen if Valentinian does not die during the conversation with the representatives of the Quadi, is that Rome would still be capable of carrying out successful military campaigns beyond the Limes, in particular we will still witness the fortification and creation of outposts along the Danube and the Rhine and in the north of Belgian Gaul ( with the aim of creating a further defensive line for Britain, against the plundering Saxons, Jutes, Angles etc., all to avoid the repetition of a second
"Great Conspiracy" ), furthermore if these campaigns continue it is very likely that the Agrii Decumanus will be taken back by Alemannic control, allowing the return of a highly fertile and urbanized area ( as well as containing the region where the Rhine and Danube are as close as possible , therefore one could think of creating a channel for commercial and defensive purposes ), certainly this would entail, even in the event of military successes on site, the return of the imperial policy of incorporating and dispersing the defeated "barbarian" populations in the empire with the aim of assimilating them ( and I could see that those most affected in the short term would be obviously the Alamanni, the Quadi, the Sarmatians, the Saxons they will be the ones most affected by this, given their relapses in invading imperial borders, and the weakening of these groups in the long run can greatly influence the ethnogenesis of populations close to them, which could be facilitated or slowed down, in particular those most affected by this would be the Franks and the Burgundians and partly the Goths who would see their direct competitors be heavily affected ), finally, it cannot be ruled out that Valentinian might think of being able to unify the 2 existing German provinces to facilitate the collection of men, resources and finances to better defend the Rhenish limes; after all, he would hardly be put at risk by such a move, knowing the wide military success and the prestige he had, as well as residing for long periods of time in the area quite frequently

 

[Nuraghe]

another interesting detail that we will see happen if Valentinian does not die during the conversation with the representatives of the Quadi, is that Rome would still be capable of carrying out successful military campaigns beyond the Limes, in particular we will still witness the fortification and creation of outposts along the Danube and the Rhine and in the north of Belgian Gaul ( with the aim of creating a further defensive line for Britain, against the plundering Saxons, Jutes, Angles etc., all to avoid the repetition of a second
"Great Conspiracy" ), furthermore if these campaigns continue it is very likely that the Agrii Decumanus will be taken back by Alemannic control, allowing the return of a highly fertile and urbanized area ( as well as containing the region where the Rhine and Danube are as close as possible , therefore one could think of creating a channel for commercial and defensive purposes ), certainly this would entail, even in the event of military successes on site, the return of the imperial policy of incorporating and dispersing the defeated "barbarian" populations in the empire with the aim of assimilating them ( and I could see that those most affected in the short term would be obviously the Alamanni, the Quadi, the Sarmatians, the Saxons they will be the ones most affected by this, given their relapses in invading imperial borders, and the weakening of these groups in the long run can greatly influence the ethnogenesis of populations close to them, which could be facilitated or slowed down, in particular those most affected by this would be the Franks and the Burgundians and partly the Goths who would see their direct competitors be heavily affected ), finally, it cannot be ruled out that Valentinian might think of being able to unify the 2 existing German provinces to facilitate the collection of men, resources and finances to better defend the Rhenish limes; after all, he would hardly be put at risk by such a move, knowing the wide military success and the prestige he had, as well as residing for long periods of time in the area quite frequently

the city that will gain most from this will be Trier, which although Otl was an important place and where many Emperors resided, including Valentinian and Gratian, will potentially be enlarged and fortified, which can avoid the approximately 5 sackings that the " Northern Rome" suffered in the 5th century

 

[Nuraghe]

while I was watching a documentary on Valentinian I and his campaigns across the Rhine, his desire to totally regain control over the Agri Decumates to simplify the connections between Raetia and Upper Germany and shorten the border ( using the river Main ) was mentioned several times , the Neckar and the famous Rhine-Danube canal as further Limes ) technically the region was still quite inhabited and in good condition and more or less returned under Roman control after the Roman-Sarmatian wars of Constantine ( which lasted from 306 to 336 ) , considering that Valentinian was at war with the Alamanni for a good period of his reign, I can understand why he wanted to definitively take away from them the territory they held in the area, also distancing them from the most exposed part of the Limes ( i.e. the passage that quickly led to Gaul and at the same time in Italy ) considering that recent archaeological research in the Agri Decumates area has so far confirmed around 60 village settlements ( vici ) and over 1300 villae rusticae, and as many cities of which the most important were Arae Flaviae ( current Rottweil, founded by Vespasian ), Civitas Aurelia Aquensis ( Baden-Baden ), Lopodunum ( Ladenburg ) and Sumelocenna ( Rottenburg am Neckar ) and finally Argentoratum ( modern Strasbourg ) without forgetting the smaller settlements in Along the route of the Limes passing through Rheinbrohl — Arnsburg— Inheiden —Schierenhof — Gunzenhausen — Pförring, all this leads historians to make an estimate of at least 250 thousand inhabitants in the region ( which for an empire as breathless as Rome in the 4th/5th century, not they would not be at all unwelcome )