WI: Vichy Without Petain

[Catspoke]

He was actually the moderate of the two camps in regards to what the terms should be as many actually wanted harsher terms for France while a small few ministers wanted more lenient terms.

A German French final peace by early August 40, works great with a strategy of de escalation by Germany, working to just reverse Versailles and re establish Germany as the predominant power.

It preempts French equatorial Africa going over to the Free French, and would allow the French to resist Japanese incursion into North Africa.

Britain would just crush the Italian colonies though, and the Soviets would cut off economic shipments to Germany as they would become paranoid over Germanys next steps.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

So let's say there is a treaty late 40, final treaty, a real easy treaty to get France out and stay out, something like Alsace Lorraine is under German occupation indefinitely, but French civil administration continues. Longwy and Briery under German occupation for 15 years. Some reasonable level of reparations, perhaps mainly truck production. But maybe some Char Bs and D520 shipments. French Military kept small. Presumably Belgium makes peace also for Eupen Malmedy. No colonial changes for either, Germany can't reoccupy those anyway.

How does Britain and Germany continue the war with France de occupied, Britain has much less invasion fears and could commit a lot to Egypt. The Germans could keep a small number of divisions on the west of Germany, like 10, and send the rest east if Barbarossa was still to happen.

Tough question. It was discussed some years ago, at least once. At this point I'd not try to predict much. It does complicate Britans calculations for continuing the war. What does offset a French peace treaty is the attack on the USSR. That OTL motivated the left internationally, and reinforced the understanding the nazi government could never be trusted. Petain and others might want to stick to the treaty, but even if Petain as instituted a iron control of the government there will be those who see a later advantage to stabbing Germany in the back. At a minimum it could take the form of a economic shut off similar to Turkey or Sweden late in the war. If the US enters the war 1941 or 1942 then there is further political and economic pressure on 'neutral' France.

It does make the direct invasion route to the Ruhr much more difficult. Churchills ideas about the Balkans or Scandanavia would have more traction.