What if New England seceded from the US?

From 1800-1815, the states around the New England region tried to secede from the US, now obviously they failed, but what if they were actually successful. Maybe like during the war of 1812, New England declares independence, what happens then?
 
New England probably would become pretty dependent on Britain.

And I would assume that this would make Southern States stronger so it means slavery lasting longer.
 
From 1800-1815, the states around the New England region tried to secede from the US, now obviously they failed, but what if they were actually successful. Maybe like during the war of 1812, New England declares independence, what happens then?
Since Britain is deciding to hold New England as a friendly nation/puppet it probably means it's much more invested in the area than it was IOTL after 1812, maybe continuing to support the natives in the Northwest; which means that another British-American conflict could be envisioned.
 
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If New England secedes, I Can see the British taking advantage to turn New England into a dominion like Canada. Also, what about the War of 1812? If it goes badly enough, then New England could get fed up enough to secede.
 
Does some or all of New York go with them? If they can get New York then they can access the Great Lakes, and lay a claim on Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
 
From 1800-1815, the states around the New England region tried to secede from the US, now obviously they failed, but what if they were actually successful. Maybe like during the war of 1812, New England declares independence, what happens then?
They didn't, and the suggestion that they did seems to arise from anti-Federalist propaganda and later from Southern secessionists seeking to justify their acts. At best secession seems to have been a radical fringe idea in New England that wasn't taken seriously, they stood to lose too much from it.
 
It's going to take more than some minor tweaks from 1800-1815 to make succession realistic.

In the lead up to the War of 1812, NE was very much against the war, correctly seeing it could go badly, and have severe negative consequences for their region. But anti war sentiment didn't rise to the level necessary to put succession on the table. Perhaps Madison, in his first term, effects policies much more damaging to NE. Perhaps Britain takes the threat of war more serious earlier and decides to agitate successionist movements, looking to distract USA so that USA's attention is diverted inward. This would butterfly the War of 1812, and quite possibly (probably?) be replaced by a civil war. I think NE needs active backing from Britain to succeed unless they can get NY and Pennsylvania to join and/or remain neutral, creating a buffer. NY wasn't part of NE, nor did it have particularly close relations. But, NY did have anti war sentiment, and might be caught up in the successionist movement. I don't know enough of the relative strengths of NE (with, or without, NY) and the rest of the Union to say who would win a civil war if Britain doesn't get involved. While Britain would probably welcome a breakup of the Union, they are much more concerned about the state of affairs in Europe.

The War of 1812 offers some opportunities for POD. If it is delayed long enough for Madison's 2nd term policies to agitate the Northern states, succession movements might gain traction. This delay can't be so long that the Nap wars are over, as Britain would then ease the policies that caused the war, and with no war in sight, the succession movements then lose steam. A War of 1813 might be a sweet spot. OTL, Britain was predominantly occupied in Europe for the first half of the American war, while the USA wasn't prepared. Here, there's an overlap of British ability to project power and USA ability to conduct war. If things go horribly wrong for the USA, NE may say, 'we're out of here', and secede.

Or, perhaps the OTL war goes worse for USA, and Britain decides to drag it out. USA was perilously close to economic disaster. NE may decide to secede rather than face complete disaster.

The aftermath depends a lot on what path the secession has taken. Things in common:
-NE, especially if NY (and possibly Pennsylvania, although doubtful) joins, is big enough to be more than just a protectorate of Britain. Britain and NE compete industrially, and will also compete for control of the Ohio region.
-An early, successful, secession will have massive effects on relations of the rump USA North and the slave states. The slave states probably have the predominant political power, and slavery likely lasts longer. At the same time, laws will be enacted which leave no doubt that secession is illegal, affecting the buildup to any future secession efforts. Rather than the South seceding, you might see northern states (what's left of them) seceding to form their own country, or joining with NE.
-Their will be competition for the old Northwest. Britain may have regained possession in the alt War of 1812/13. Or the balkanized USA will be at odds with each other over possession.
 
From 1800-1815, the states around the New England region tried to secede from the US, now obviously they failed, but what if they were actually successful. Maybe like during the war of 1812, New England declares independence, what happens then?

They didn't, and the suggestion that they did seems to arise from anti-Federalist propaganda and later from Southern secessionists seeking to justify their acts. At best secession seems to have been a radical fringe idea in New England that wasn't taken seriously, they stood to lose too much from it.

As Hummingbird said, 'tried to secede' is putting it a bit strong. Individuals within those states considered potential secession, but the famous Hartford Convention was not intended to be a secessionist meeting, and didn't propose it. On the other hand, Governor Caleb Strong of Massachussets did send an emissary to Sir John Sherbrooke enquiring about the possibility of a separate peace, which hardly makes it a completely fringe idea. In a scenario where the federal government collapses outright (say, Madison is killed at Bladensburg, leaving Gerry as president before he too dies) then it seems possible for the New England states to seek separate peace with Britain, which essentially amounts to secession.

If New England secedes, I Can see the British taking advantage to turn New England into a dominion like Canada. Also, what about the War of 1812? If it goes badly enough, then New England could get fed up enough to secede.

Being economically close to and allied with Britain is one thing, but you're not going to get founding members of the United States with proud Revolutionary histories queueing up to become British dominions. If anything the reverse could happen; a stable, Yankee republic could be a beacon for Canadian republicans to seek to join.
 
If New England secedes in the early antebellum period, New York probably isn't along for the ride. So now you've got a Union with only 3-5 free states in it: New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and potentially Indiana/Illinois, though this isn't an absolute certainty with New England having bolted. The new union is going to be very pro slavery, and New York is going increasingly tied to the institution as the commercial capital of the nation. This relationship is going to be tense and I wonder what happens to the Empire state.

New England probably remains very close with Britain, and the two develop a tight trading relationship. It might be a little slower on industrialization without as easy access to the American market but makes up for this by being more maritime oriented. Early politics probably revolve around the maritime cities vs the hinterland and Massachussets domination as well as lingering Union sentiment. I imagine that New England and the United States start off on friendly terms, and might even dabble with reunion, but as time goes on and slavery starts to truly cement itself in place those thoughts will evaporate.

Westward settlement is going to be different, if Britain saws off the northern half of the Old Northwest the Ohio River is going to be the main avenue for westward expansion. St Louis is going to be a far bigger and more important city than OTL. Will the USA allow Yankee settlement? They were never anti-immigrant in OTL, so they'll likely allow it, but New Englanders might have qualms about leaving their own country so westward migration might be somewhat curtailed.
 
How long will Slavery last for? IIRC, slavery in New England was dying out at this time, but it still existed in a dying form. If New England secedes and forms its own government, perhaps slavery would be abolished much earlier?
 
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