Victorious KMT sphere of influence

[walmart]

Say the KMT is victorious in the Chinese civil war and captures all of the mainland

What countries could fall into its sphere of influence during and after the cold war

 

[Wendell]

The Korean Peninsula and mainland Southeast Asia. Maybe Mongolia after the wall comes down.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Korean Peninsula and mainland Southeast Asia. Maybe Mongolia after the wall comes down.

The KMT still claims the entirety of Mongolia. I think that when the wall comes down it will be in China, rather than in China's sphere of influence.

 

[Wendell]

The KMT still claims the entirety of Mongolia. I think that when the wall comes down it will be in China, rather than in China's sphere of influence.

Ruling China is different though than claiming to rule China. Ideally the CCP would have liked to rule Mongolia too.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Ruling China is different though than claiming to rule China. Ideally the CCP would have liked to rule Mongolia too.

The PRC recognized Mongolia before the civil war was even over.

 

[Wendell]

The PRC recognized Mongolia before the civil war was even over.

Out of necessity.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Out of necessity.

And the KMT will have no reason to recognize Mongolia.

 

[Wendell]

And the KMT will have no reason to recognize Mongolia.

Except peace with is neighbors. West Germany claimed the 1937 borders of Germany up until reunification.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Except peace with is neighbors. West Germany claimed the 1937 borders of Germany up until reunification.

It also didn't recognize East Germany until it annexed it. Mongolia has a population of only 3 million. It's much easier to pretend it doesn't exist than it was for West Germany to pretend there was no East Germany.

 

[Wendell]

It also didn't recognize East Germany until it annexed it. Mongolia has a population of only 3 million. It's much easier to pretend it doesn't exist than it was for West Germany to pretend there was no East Germany.

It may fall quickly to invasion, but Russia and others will frown upon the land grab.

 

[walmart]

It may fall quickly to invasion, but Russia and others will frown upon the land grab.

Could a KMT China coerce Mongolia into joining, offering autonomy if it joins peacefully ?

 

[Wendell]

Could a KMT China coerce Mongolia into joining, offering autonomy if it joins peacefully ?

Perhaps, given the right circumstances.

 

[Tom_B]

All this discussion of Mongolia and not a word about Tibet

 

[Monter]

The RoC recognized Mongolia in an agreement with Stalin before turning it down once they lost the civil war.

 

[walmart]

All this discussion of Mongolia and not a word about Tibet

Isn’t Tibet likely to go similar to otl given it’s isolated and has no great power protecter

 

[Simon]

The KMT still claims the entirety of Mongolia. I think that when the wall comes down it will be in China, rather than in China's sphere of influence.

I can't really see that happening. Mongolia had been widely diplomatically recognised, including by the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council, before the USSR collapsed. China would have to invade and forcibly annex the country which I seriously doubt would be recognised by anyone else, would set of a diplomatic firestorm, and likely result in wide ranging sanctions being put in place against them.

 

[Tom_B]

I am wondering about a possible Sino-Indian War with a victorious KMT esp. if Nehru regards Chiang as being weak and corrupt.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

I can't really see that happening. Mongolia had been widely diplomatically recognised, including by the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council, before the USSR collapsed. China would have to invade and forcibly annex the country which I seriously doubt would be recognised by anyone else, would set of a diplomatic firestorm, and likely result in wide ranging sanctions being put in place against them.

Just like all the crippling sanctions that followed Tiananmen Square, the Sino-Indian War, the Chinese annexation of the Paracel Islands, the Sino-Vietnamese War? How about all the sanctions heaped on Morocco after it wiped Western Sahara off the map? If OTL's China is too important to the global economy to seriously sanction, imagine how laughable the idea of putting putting serious sanctions on a China that's been a player since the 1950s would be.

There'd be some noise in the west, but soon enough it'll just be written off as another communist state passing its best before date.

 

[Whiteshore]

Could a KMT China coerce Mongolia into joining, offering autonomy if it joins peacefully ?

Or legitimize said coerced annexation via a (rigged) referendum, for that matter.

 

[RousseauX]

The Korean Peninsula and mainland Southeast Asia.

Unlikely to the former before the cold war ends, the latter even after the cold war ends